Donald Trump hasn’t even completed his first year as president, but he’s already holding re-election rallies across the country. Likewise, the Democrats are looking ahead to 2020 while simultaneously trying to figure out what the hell happened in 2016. The reality of modern presidential politics is that the campaign never ends.
Donald Trump is at real risk of being ousted in the 2020 election — if he even lasts that long — and the Dems have an eclectic mix of young and old hoping to unseat the most unpopular president in modern history.
Who will run and who will win? Who will sink and who will swim? Here are the latest odds.
Normally the odds for reelection would be far more favorable to the incumbent. No sitting president has been defeated since George H.W. Bush in 1992. But Donald Trump’s approval rating since taking office has been remarkably low. No other president has had a run this bad this early on in his first term.
We are still over three years to the 2020 election, though, and the Democrats are still trying to figure out where they stand on some key issues. If the Dems can coalesce around a popular candidate then they’ll stand a great chance against whoever the Republicans throw at them (and it won’t necessarily be Trump).
The Republicans still have three years to figure out their move for 2020. The biggest question is whether they run Donald Trump or a more “traditional” candidate. For the time being, the GOP base is still onboard with Trump even if the general public isn’t.
With so much that can happen between now and 2020, it’s pretty much a coin toss.
Kamala Harris: 15/3
Bernie Sanders: 5/2
Elizabeth Warren: 6/1
Joe Biden: 9/1
Cory Booker: 9/1
Mark Zuckerberg: 19/1
It’s interesting to note that four of the top five Democratic frontrunners co-sponsored Bernie Sanders’ Medicare-for-all bill (Joe Biden being the exception), which proposes a single-payer healthcare system. That should give us a pretty strong idea of where the party is headed, or at least where the momentum is within the party.
Bernie Sanders (5/2) remains extremely popular, but at 76 years old, it’ll be tough for him to run in 2020. The same goes for Joe Biden (9/1), who is currently 74. Elizabeth Warren (6/1) is not much younger at 68, to the surprise of many. They are all popular and carry a ton of name-recognition, which explains their favorable odds. But I’m more inclined to pick a younger candidate.
Kamala Harris (15/3) and Cory Booker (9/1) are rising stars within the party and this is where the value is for futures bettors. Harris is an unknown quantity, but she’s making all the right moves at the moment. Booker fell out of favor for a while but he’s going all out to reclaim support.
Donald Trump: 9/11
Mike Pence: 17/3
John Kasich: 19/1
Ben Sasse: 25/1
Tom Cotton: 25/1
Marco Rubio: 40/1
Paul Ryan: 50/1
Usually this wouldn’t be contentious at all, but there’s a pretty good chance that Donald Trump (9/11) won’t survive the 2020 primaries (or even his first term). It’s tough to predict who would take his place, though.
Vice-President Mike Pence (17/3) is the obvious choice, but Pence’s name is inextricably linked to Trump’s. It’s hard to imagine the Republicans ousting Trump and picking the one guy who has stood by him every step of the way.
The other Republican hopefuls are playing their cards very close to the vest. Revealing their presidential ambitions at this point in time is political suicide, so we don’t have a clear picture of who will throw their hat into the ring. John Kasich (19/1), Ben Sasse (25/1), and Tom Cotton (25/1) have publicly split with Trump on several issues, which is a solid hint. The odds are pretty long, so I would recommend spreading your money among those three.
Other well-known Republicans, like Marco Rubio (40/1) and Paul Ryan (50/1) are in the mix as well, but Ryan is one of the most hated men in politics right now and Rubio is still licking his wounds from the 2016 primary.
Several women are among the favorites for the Democrats, including Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, and Kirsten Gillibrand. The best bet on the Republican side is Nikki Haley.
Hillary may have failed to shatter the ultimate glass ceiling in 2016, but there’s reason to be hopeful for 2020.
We’ve been bombarded with names — Mark Zuckerberg, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, Oprah, Kid Rock, Kanye West, Mark Cuban, and on and on and on. I wouldn’t count on any of them winning, though. The novelty of a celebrity president is long gone. Right? Please?
Photo credit: Donkey Hotey (Flickr) CC License
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