Has ISIS succeeded where the laws of political gravity have failed? Have the terror attacks in Paris finally cast a fatal blow on the candidacies of Donald Trump and Ben Carson?
Trump and Carson trampolined to the top of the Republican field precisely because they offered Republican voters (those polled, anyway) an alternative to the same-old, same-old. But will those voters now take a second, harder look at the two in light of the attacks and question whether either has the foreign policy chops to figure out what the free world should do about people who strap bombs to their chests for the sole purpose of killing indiscriminately?
Until Friday, Nov. 13, Trump and Carson enjoyed free rides. Trump could insult whomever he wanted, while Carson was able to get away with bizarre comments about his past (plus the real reason behind Egypt’s pyramids). But in the attack’s aftermath, Trump is being asked to reveal details of his still-secret plan to crush ISIS, and even Carson’s advisors admit to being frustrated that their man just can’t seem to grasp what is going on internationally.
Have Trump and Carson become collateral damage in ISIS’s terror campaign?
Carson seems to be dropping, but Trump’s poll numbers remained steady as he doubled down on his anti-immigration rhetoric, even as his plans for the Middle East remain vague and fluid.
With that backdrop in mind, we set out our latest odds to win the 2016 presidential election.
Odds to win the 2016 presidential election:
(6/5) Hillary Clinton – Clinton is more hawkish than her Democratic opponents.
(9/1) Marco Rubio – His past support for immigration is still a hurdle for most Republicans.
(20/1) Ted Cruz – Waiting patiently for Trump and Carson to fade so he can pick on the remains.
(20/1) Donald Trump – He makes great deals. Doubt ISIS is in a bargaining mood, though.
(30/1) Bernie Sanders – Hillary would have to suffer a serious health setback, and even then it would only open the door for Biden to change his mind.
(30/1) Ben Carson – Every time he opens his mouth, it’s the equivalent of a hockey player putting the puck in his own net.
(30/1) Jeb Bush – Not enough bandwith to list the things that have gone wrong for Bush.
(40/1) Field Bet: Mitt Romney/Al Gore – Break glass in case of emergency.
(40/1) Field Bet: The Rest (Chris Christie, John Kasich, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Martin O’Malley, etc.)– Running in quicksand. Paul’s isolationist foreign policy is especially damaging considering Paris and the current mood of Republican voters.
(Image credit: DonkeyHotey (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode].)
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