Bayern Munich (-150) vs Atletico Madrid (+520), Draw (+310)
Atletico Madrid (5-0-0, 15 points) will travel to Allianz Arena to take on Bayern Munich (3-0-2, 9 points) on December 6 in the last fixture of the Champions League group stage. Whatever the outcome, the group standings will not change. Atletico will qualify first in the group and Bayern will qualify second.
The last time the two powers faced off, Atletico took a well-deserved 1-0 victory. Yannick Carrasco scored the lone goal, but the margin would have been larger if Antoine Griezmann had not missed a penalty late in the game.
As it stands, Atletico have collected the maximum 15 points after five group-stage games. Bayern have only accumulated nine after losing to Atletico and the lowly Russian side FC Rostov. A win against Atletico will not be enough to bridge the gap, though a loss won’t see them fall.
Robert Lewandowski remains Bayern’s greatest threat in front of goal. He continues to be Bayern’s top scorer in both the Bundesliga and the Champions League (seven and four goals, respectively). The young Joshua Kimmich has also established himself as a reliable goalscorer this season, while the usual threats of Thomas Müller, Arjen Robben, and Franck Ribery remain.
Atletico are a much more defensively-minded side and don’t have the same litany of goal-scorers available. Having said that, Antoine Griezmann, Kevin Gameiro, and Yannick Carrasco have each scored six goals in La Liga so far this season.
Domestically, both sides should be slightly disappointed with where they stand. Bayern Munich sit in second place behind RB Leipzig; Atletico have fallen to fourth after an encouraging start. Since the upcoming Champions League game will not affect their position within the group, the focus of both teams will be on their upcoming domestic league games.
Both teams will not want to risk injuries to their players and will avoid yellow cards and match suspensions at all costs. With that in mind, the draw is a reasonable bet and solid value at +310.
Pick: Draw (+310)
Photo credit: “Hertha-Bayern 2-1” by André Zehetbauer, CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Flickr.
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