Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers (-7.5, 45 o/u)
Week 4 in the NFL has a few great games to take advantage of this week; this match-up between the Cleveland Browns (1-2, 0-1 Away) and the San Diego Chargers (1-2, 1-0 Home) is not one of them. But the uninspiring Browns will travel to meet the unpredictable Bolts this Sunday (4:05 PM Eastern) and there is money to made on this game.
The line on this game is ridiculous. There is was too much confidence being placed in a Chargers team that has played, maybe, four combined good quarters of football all year. Much like star receiver Keenan Allen, San Diego is all over the place and it’s very difficult to put a finger on what this team is.
Phillip Rivers opened the season looking good in a home comeback over the Lions, but that win continues to lose its “impressive” label as Detroit blunders their way through the season. Since then, Rivers has struggled, turning the ball over four times in the next two losses and taking a beating at the hands of the Vikings D.
But the West Coast teams are 4-1 against the spread at home to start the year, and more importantly, San Diego is playing the Browns. It’s understandable that the Chargers are favored, but are they good enough to actually take this game convincingly? Keep in mind, the last time the Bolts played Cleveland, they lost a 7-6 decision to Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson on the shores of Lake Erie.
Josh McCown is another paper bag player: you don’t know what you’re going to get until you open him up. He was pretty sharp last week, without the help of a run game. But his game-sealing interception came on an under-thrown ball. The Chargers can’t stop the run, so the Browns might be able to find some success, but overall, this is too gross of a game for me to play the line.
However, the game total in this one looks to be a favorable one. The Browns have hit the over in all three games this season. San Diego is 1-2 o/u, but that one over came at home. Neither team is particularly adept at stopping opposing offenses (Browns: 24 points per game allowed, Chargers: 27.7 ppg allowed). Overall, in this young season, teams are 26-22-1 against the total.
If you feel inclined to play this game (I know you don’t feel inclined to watch it), play the over. It’ll pay off.
Pick: Over (45).
(Photo Credit: Zolotkey (Originally posted to Flickr. Photo may appear cropped.)[https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/2.0/])
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