Yeah sure, either the New England Patriots or Atlanta Falcons will hoist the Lombardi Trophy after the final whistle blows at Super Bowl LI on Sunday, February 5, in Houston, Texas. But you’d have to be a bit of a stiff to only lay some action on the outcome of the game.
If you’re looking for a thrill – please gamble responsibly – test your luck on what kind of outfit Lady Gaga will be wearing during the halftime show. Or how long Luke Bryan’s National Anthem will go. And if you’re real ballsy, you can even try to predict how many commercials Peyton Manning will appear in.
Whatever you decide to do with your money is completely up to you. But here are the odds for just about everything you’ll witness over the 215 minute broadcast. Or will it be 216 minutes?
In-Game Odds
Odds the opening coin toss comes up …
[Public Domain]
Tails: 1/1
We have seen tails in 26 of 50 instances and in each of the last three Super Bowls. Heads is due.
Odds the team that wins the coin toss …
Defers: 1/2
Receives: 2/1
Deferring your decision to the second-half has become the norm in the NFL. Atlanta has deferred all nine coin tosses they have won this season; New England elected to receive in the AFC Championship last week for the first time all season. With two lethal offenses in this game, the coach who wins the toss may decide getting on the board first is more important.
Odds a coach challenges a play: 5/3
Odds a challenged play gets overturned: 3/1
Timeouts are far too valuable to these teams to be throwing that red flag without certainty. Travis Kelce may not agree, but Carl Cheffers and his crew have been pretty damn good this season.
Odds on what color Gatorade will be poured on the winning coach:
Orange: 7/2
Blue: 15/4
Clear/Water: 4/1
Purple: 6/1
Yellow: 13/2
None: 10/1
The last time the Pats won the Super Bowl, Bill Belichick received a blue bath. Clear was used four years in a row, but the last was Super Bowl XLII. Orange has been the color of choice in four of the last seven Super Bowls, including Denver’s win last year. Only one coach has escaped the dousing in the last 12 years – John Harbaugh in Super Bowl XLVII.
The win would be historic for both teams, so expect the Gatorade to be dumped at the conclusion.
Calamity Props
Odds the game gets delayed (by anything): 19/1
Everyone remembers the Superdome blackout in 2013, which led to a half-hour delay. (Ironically, the blackout was caused by a device that was supposed to prevent blackouts.) There have been other close calls, as well. In 1982, the Niners team bus got stuck behind Vice President George Bush’s motorcade and almost didn’t make kickoff. Anyone know who Trump is hoping for? He might be getting notions.
Odds the power goes out in the stadium: 99/1
After the Superdome incident, I have to think that every Super Bowl host has, like, five levels of fail-safes in place. Right? Right?? I hope so. That half-hour of talking to my family did lasting damage.
Odds the goal posts fall down: 5,000/1
Jimmy Graham’s not here to throw down a massive dunk and the stadium has a retractable roof that will keep the elements out. Even if the roof is open, goal posts can withstand 115 MPH winds. The game might get delayed, but the unsung goal posts will continue to stand sentinel.
Odds pyrotechnics start a fire in the stadium: 499/1
Odds there is a Microsoft tablet malfunction: 6/1
The Surface had its growing pains last year, but culminated with a strong showing in Super Bowl L, and even got its own moneyshot of sorts!
Odds a participating player is arrested during Super Bowl week: 15/1
You’d think players would be on their best behavior in the week leading up to (for most) the biggest game of their lives. Yet, more than a few guys have found the festivities just too much. The Bengals’ Stanley Wilson famously went on a cocaine-fueled romp the night before Super Bowl XXIII, resulting in a life-time ban from the league. If you include getting arrested at an after-party, these odds go way up.
Odds there is a brawl on the field: 150/1
There’s just not enough history or hate among these teams.
Odds there is a brawl in the stands amongst the fans: 1/5
There’s just too not enough alcohol tolerance among this human race.
Odds a fan streaks the field: 4/1
Ah, streaking, the old staple. These days, most streakers at high-profile events are trying to advertise something. I’ve heard the Super Bowl is a good place to advertise, but that might just be a rumor.
Odds a fan throws a _____ on the field:
flare/smoke bomb: 15/1
slightly deflated football: 19/1
dildo (pink or otherwise): 45/1 (Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery?)
dead falcon: 300/1 (Sorry for the imagery, but a live one would just fly away.)
Broadcast Props
O/U on the number of times the phrase “greatest of all-time” is said during the broadcast: 5.5
O/U on the number of times Joe Buck and Troy Aikman are seen on screen during the broadcast: 4.5
Odds sideline reporter Erin Andrews has a “Rob Manfred” encounter during the game: 99/1
Bats and other foreign objects were banned from NFL sidelines last year.
O/U on the length of the broadcast: 215.5 minutes
O/U on the number of times FOX show stars are shown in the crowd during the broadcast: 1.5
I don’t think Gordon Ramsay has much of an appreciation for American football.
O/U on references to Tom Brady and Matt Ryan being “similar” QBs: 1.5
O/U times Robert Kraft and family are shown during the game: 2.5
Is President Trump a part of the family yet?
O/U on the number of promos for FOX shows during the broadcast: 7.5
Patriots Props
By Brad Muckenthaler (Wikimedia Commons)
Odds Bill Belichick retires after SB LI: 12/1
Odds Tom Brady retires after SB LI: 11/1
If Josh McDaniels is waiting for Belichick to retire, he better make himself comfortable. Brady will go first and then Belichick will follow after he gets a taste of life without his quarterback. It won’t happen just yet, though.
O/U references to Deflategate/Spygate: 4.5
What will be more awkward: Roger Goodell having to hand the Lombardi Trophy to Tom Brady, or Goodell having to hold back a smirk if the Patriots lose?
O/U on the number of times Gisele is shown on screen: 1.5
O/U mentions of modern dynasty: 3.5
Falcons Props
O/U references to Michael Vick: 1.5
By Keith Allison (Wikimedia Commons)
But will they talk about the team suing him for their money back?
O/U references to “Dirty Birds” team: 2.5
O/U on the number of times Arthur Blank is shown on screen: 3.5
Thanks to Blank’s generosity, all Falcons employees will be joining him at the Super Bowl. This act of kindness will also score him a little more face-time on the cameras.
O/U references to the team trying to win its first Super Bowl: 4.5
Entertainment Props
Odds there is a halftime show sound malfunction: 12/1
Odds there is a halftime show wardrobe malfunction: 2/1
Is it still a “malfunction” if it’s planned?
Odds Lady Gaga wears an outfit that “breaks” Twitter: 1/3
Odds Lady Gaga wears an outfit FOX needs to blur for indecency: 3/2
Odds Lady Gaga has a snake on stage during the halftime show: 4/5
Nobody is ruling anything out with Lady Gaga set to perform. It may not be a meat dress this time, but prepare yourself for something out of the ordinary. I wonder how many games she’ll get from Goodell afterwards.
Odds someone catches on fire during the halftime show: 25/1
Ok, we’re sort of ruling this out.
O/U on the number of guest performers during the halftime show: 0.5
Recent rumors have suggested that Lady Gaga will be performing solo, but is it even a halftime show if Beyonce isn’t there? Gaga and Beyonce did do that hit song “Telephone” together.
Odds on Lady Gaga’s opening halftime show song
By nikotransmission (Wikimedia Commons)
The Edge Of Glory: 3/1
Perfect Illusion: 7/2
Born This Way: 4/1
Other: 2/1
The opener has to get the fans on their feet. “The Edge Of Glory” seems like the perfect fit.
Odds on Lady Gaga’s closing halftime show song
Til It Happens To You: 4/1
You and I: 5/1
Just Dance: 11/2
Other: 1/1
Look for Ms. Germanotta to use her closer to leave the crowd with a powerful message. Or she may go full circle and conclude the show with the song that started her career.
O/U total number of songs during halftime show: 7.5
Coldplay, along with Beyonce and Bruno Mars, got seven songs in last year, but I don’t know if they had been planning this since they were four-years-old. Although Gaga may have a lot that she wants to cover, her time is limited.
Odds Lady Gaga gets booed during the halftime show: 9/1
When she goes political, we’ll truly find out how many supporters Donald Trump has.
Odds someone falls off the stage during the halftime show: 12/1
If so, let’s just pray the stage isn’t on the roof.
O/U on the length of the national anthem: 120.5 seconds
Odds Luke Bryan messes up the words to the national anthem: 22/1
If you want to do some scouting, see Luke Bryan singing the National Anthem at the 2012 MLB All-Star Game.
Odds on which company will air the first commercial (after the coin toss):
Bud Light: 25/1
Lexus: 30/1
Intel: 30/1
Skittles: 30/1
Wix: 30/1
TurboTax: 33/1
Avocados from Mexico: 35/1
Mr. Clean: 35/1
Hyundai: 500/1
This info hasn’t leaked yet. It could be anyone in the highly coveted spot, except Hyundai, for reasons that we’ll get to. The bigger, richer companies have slightly better odds.
Odds on which brand will win best commercial (per USA Today’s ad meter):
Budweiser: 5/2
Hyundai: 4/1
Wix: 5/1
FIELD: 13/7
Budweiser won three straight years (2013-15) before Hyundai knocked it from its perch at Super Bowl 50. Both should be back with strong spots again this year. Hyundai has an especially gimmicky ad in the works, producing the entire spot during the game. I hope they at least bought air-time in the fourth quarter.
The odds for the field would be higher if heavy-hitter Doritos wasn’t sitting this year out.
O/U commercials parodying Donald Trump: 1.5
O/U commercials featuring Peyton Manning: 1
Odds a player in the game is featured in a commercial: 1/19
Spoiler-alert, it’s Tom Brady in an Intel commercial.
Odds a player in the game is featured in multiple commercials: 9/1
I don’t think Brady will be multiple spots. No one else has a high enough profile.
Odds on who is more likely to host Saturday Night Live following the Super Bowl:
Tom Brady: 1/19
Julio Jones: 25/1
Matt Ryan: 50/1
Bill Belichick: 5,000/1
Hahaha, I would pay so much to see Belichick host SNL. You could get a lot of mileage out of a hoodie salesman sketch.
Photo Credit: Joe Parks (Katy Perry Super Bowl XLIX Halftime) [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons.
